Homo sapience species starts in 2020 to reduce its population to the limits imposed by survival parameters and the size of the planet Earth.
By creating land an sea networks to reach new territories and develop commerce humans ensure an exchange of deadly illnesses, plagues. See Silk Road that brought bubonic plague to Europe, and decimated half of its population. See conquest by Spain of Americas that ruined Actecs and Incas, decimated their populations but brought in exchange malaria and syphilis back.
By XXI century Agriculture turns into Agroindustry. To raise output of poultry, porc, beef, it adds antibiotics, hormones. To raise profits it squeezes hens, swines, cattle into boxes and cages, it reduces their lifespan with genetical engineering.
To make superprofits humans don’t spare their own health. AKA by replacing sugar in soft drinks with sweeteners and introducing fasfoods that contain glutamate, which turn consumers into fastfood addicts, humans become overweight diabetics and reduce their multiplication.
Following the rasing of living , social and educational standards of population women limit the number of children they bare. LGBT movement turn sex, religions and childbearing into a farce.
By 2020 vested interest start an operation of reduction of population worldwide. Mass media runs an unbridled fearmongering pandemics campaign. Governements are pushed into lockdowns that damage world economy and livelihoods of millions.
According to population genetics and anthropology, our homo sapiens subspecies sapiens (anatomically modern humans H.s.s) has grown to the alleged population of 7.5 billion from a group of 20-30 persons that appeared in Africa 120-150 000 years ago and moved back and forth through Sinai to Eurasia, Australia, North and South America.
H.s.s was formed as an aggressive and prone to multiplication in geometrical progression species. It had its cognitive revolution and reached as the hunter gatherer the top ladder of mamal species by the end of Ice Age that blocked its multiplication. Ice Age ended 12 000 years ago, the omnivore species began agricultural revolution to unfold its multiplication capacities.
Population growth led to domestication of plants and animals and permanent settlements that turned into kingdoms and empires that invented script, money and religions. Neither wars or plagues couldn’t stop this growth.
Scientific, industrial revolutions and social revolutions that took place 500, 200, 100 years have on one hand ago accelerated growth of population, and on the other produced ways and means for conflicts between kingdoms, empires, ideologies.
Global population is actually increasing by about 1.5 percent per year, a growth rate (should it persist) that in less than half a century will double the number of people who live on the planet.
Modern medical techniques are producing life extension but not healthy life extension, and we are seeing numbers of old and chronically sick or disabled elderly people in increasingly longer economically unproductive retirements, they are the first to die in covid pandemics.
The ability of the Earth to sustain the human population, posed by Malthus over 200 years ago, is a serious question. Food and energy demands are increasing. Dependence on finite resources for energy and water is already threatening international stability. Exponential population growth can only make matters worse.
Improving economic development in the most populous countries of the developing world (India, China) is leading to changing patterns of demand, as people seek more affluent lifestyles. Consequently, the brith rate is decreasing there.
Air quality resulting from over-rapid industrialisation is becoming a major problem that will have major public health effects. The likely determinants of climate change, usually attributed to the developed nations, are now spread throughout the developing world, making the ability of nations to achieve the targets signed-up to at Kyoto unlikely to be achieved.
Rather than simply equating population policy with family planning, the new thinking is that population growth should be stabilised – and development enhanced – by attacking some of the roots of the problem: by improving women’s access to education, health care, and economic and political decisions.
Examples from various cultures
China has operated a one-child policy for a number of years, enforced though a system of fines, relaxed after mass bereavements such as Sichuan Earthquake; the focus of China on population control helps provide a better health service for women and a reduction in the risks of death and injury associated with pregnancy.
At family planning offices, women receive free contraception and pre-natal classes. Help is provided for pregnant women to closely monitor their health. Culturally, traditional religious practice requires a son to perform the parents’ funerals, leading to resistance to the policy in some rural areas when the first-born is as girl.
Growth has indeed slowed, yet during 1996 China added 13 million people to its numbers. Rural folk have been less cooperative; however, the one-child policy has achieved statistical wonders. In one generation, China’s birth rates have plunged to 1.9 children per mother – a rate that, if sustained, will lead to depopulation.
According to a recent survey, ethnic minorities are currently growing about 7 times faster than Han Chinese.
The decline in population growth rate has exacerbated another problem familiar in the West: rapid ageing. There will be 129 million Chinese over the age of 60 as of the year 2000. By 2020, one in four will be elderly (twice the total present population of the United States) – a rare burden for a low income country.
The sex ratio at birth (between male and female births) in mainland China reached 117:100 in the year 2000, substantially higher than the natural baseline, which ranges between 103:100 and 107:100. This suggests differential abortion if the sex is known antenatally.
India operates a two-child policy. During 1970s they used forced sterilisation of the poor. India has greatly increased food production per head over last 20 years, making it better placed to absorb higher numbers. The country’s most recent approach to population issues focuses on the advancement of women economically, academically, and socially, as independent women are more likely to have small families.
Africa: birth rates in Africa are the highest in the world. By the year 2050, twenty percent of the world’s population will live on the African continent. That will be almost two thousand million people, up from eight hundred fifty-five million people today. Especially large population growth is expected in Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Other countries likely to have major growth include Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Somalia and Uganda.
Kenya was the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to view runaway population growth as a serious impediment to economic prosperity, and it became the first, in the late 1960s, to begin developing a national family-planning campaign. The country’s official population policy calls for matching population size with available resources, yet leaves decisions on family size up to individual families.
As recently as 1970, Africa was essentially self-sufficient in food. What fostered a breakdown in the continent’s ability to feed itself has been a decline of nearly 1 percent per year in per capita grain production since 1968 – in part due to an annual population growth for the continent approaching 3 percent.
The root cause of Africa’s crisis, according to Worldwatch Institute analyst Lester Brown, is population growth faster than on any continent in history, widespread soil erosion and desertification, and a failure by African governments to adequately support agriculture.
Europe: by contrast, France offers financial incentives for larger (3 child) families.
The population of Europe is also aging faster than any other part of the world, except Japan. Birth rates are also down in many European countries. The number of people depending on workers will rise as the number of workers falls. Spending in European countries will have to increase for retirement, health care and long-term care for old people in the future.
Russia faces the most severe population decrease of any country. The population of Russia is now one hundred forty-three million. It is expected to drop twenty-two percent over the next forty-five years. If this happens, Russia could lose more than forty percent of its active workforce and have economic problems. Part of the problem is the short length of time that Russian men generally live.
The average life expectancy for Russian men is just sixty-six years. Russian women live eleven years longer. Men in Western Europe live sixteen years longer. Drugs, tobacco smoking and alcohol are some of the main causes of death among Russian men. Russia also has low birth rates.
to be continued..
The coronavirus epidemic in China that turned by 2020 into a pandemic in the global village is an inevitable product of globalization.
The Covid-19 pandemic is allegedly the only reason for the lockdowns in the countries producing over 85% of the world GDP with a population of 4.7 billion.
Lockdowns in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Japan have stopped the epidemics. with draconian quarantine measures, availability of medical manpower, equipment, and hospitals.
Lockdowns in democratic countries that either can’t apply complete quarantine or don’t have adequate medical manpower, equipment, and hospital beds or both may prove to be much more destructive than constructive.
The allegation that pandemic originated in the centralized state capitalism of communist China is irrelevant. As China became by 2020 the largest manufacturing economy and exporter of goods, the severing of the supply chains leads to the contraction of the world GDP, and social unrest.
The epidemic of SARS in 2002-2003 did not cross the borders of China and did not turn into a pandemic. In 2002 China was just 4th manufacturing economy in the world. Nowadays it is the first one. Will China become the only one by 2025?
Fact 03 – Spanish flu January 1918 – December 1920
An unusually deadly pandemic involving H1N1 virus that affected 500 million people or about 27% of the world population of between 1.8 billion with the death toll as high as 100 million young adults.
Massive programs of vaccination of 1895-1918 based on the research of Louis Pasteur, Ferdinand Cohn and Robert Koch, founders of microbiology and bacteriology, coincide with 15-18 years time-lag with the Spanish flu pandemic with the high mortality rate for young adults.
Hypothesis 02 – Coronavirus to write off the world debt
World powers have found a solution to delete the global debt. Indeed, The top borrowers in the world – the United States, China, Europe, and Japan—account for 3/4 of global debt, exceeding by 50% their share of global output.
Ways and Means for debtor nations
Forecast for 2020
a) expected infection (I) in 2020 up to 50 million;
b) expected death rate of 3% from corona; (D);
c) expected number of death in 2020, I x D = 1.5 million,
AKA compares well with Spanish flu 1918-20
Fact: an annual average of 500 000 flu deaths in 2009-2019;
Hypothesis 03 – Origin of COVID pandemic
An optimistic case. Genetical engineering research on the military, political, and/or ideological competing agenda in China, USA, Israel, UK, Russia. A man-made virus always has an antidote vaccine to be released upon the achievement of objectives of the agenda. The population accepts massive vaccination, even if it has infertility as a side effect. Controlled reduction of the world population to the size defined by the agenda.
A pessimistic case. Pandemic as a result of mutation of coronavirus uncontrolled by humans. Genetical engineering research develops ASAP a vaccine against Covid-19 that may have infertility as a side effect. AKA, vaccines against Ebola or AIDS stop Covid-19 but has infertility as collateral. Uncontrolled reduction of the world population by die-outs until it develops immunity. The size of the reduction is a guess.
History will repeat itself. Surviving historians will rewrite history to suit the surviving powers.
Population statistics wargame
The population of 20 major cities in China is 250 million, 50% of the population lives in cities, grain production 500 mln tons, rice 200 mln tons. The average per head consumption including transformation is 1 ton per annum. The population estimate does not exceed 700 million.
The population of 20 major cities in India is 75 million, 15% of the population lives in cities, grain production 300 mln tons, rice 200 mln tons. The average per head consumption including transformation is 1 ton per annum. The population estimate does not exceed 500 million.
Corollary: the actual population is closer to 6 than to 8 billion people.
H.s. sapiens subspecies has barely survived the Ice Age that started 110 000 years ago and finished 10 000 years ago but was followed by “stimulating” Little Ice Ages and volcanic eruptions. We enter by 2020 into New Little Ice Age, increased climate instability, and volcanic activity.
Europe had good luck with the early medieval warm period from 850 to 1350 followed by Little Ice Age of 1350 to 1850 which literally pushed it into Renaissance and Enlightenment, induced scientific and technical superiority compared of Europe to Eurasia. From 1452 to 1850 Europeans colonized the Globe.
Present Chart of climate waves is based on ice core probes from Greenland is irrefutable, historical legends referred thereto are not. Being based on erroneous chronology invented in XVII century all events, empires, kingdoms prior to XVI century “related” in consensual history are alleged.
The Northern hemisphere became suitable for agriculture ensuring our species fairly stable survival conditions. We restarted multiplying. Anthropology, DNA genetics, population genomics, modern evolutionary synthesis allow tracking the movements of subspecies population across the globe.
According to UN Population Institute, the world population reached 1 billion by 1800 AD. UN Institute considers that humans can form a self-sustainable civilization with an initial population of 73 000.
Input: species X multiply in couples, produce 3 surviving children, have 25 years lifespan, favorable survival conditions are present, i.e. ideal fluvial agriculture in the delta of Nile, survival territory Y (Egypt, Mare Nostrum coasts).
Output: exponential population growth of 18% per generation of 25 years or annual 0.72% growth, and our species reaches after 48 generations the population of 1 billion in 1800 AD from starting initial population of 73 000 in 600 AD, die-outs due to the development of large sea and land transportation networks are excluded.
The above reverse calculation of the population growth points to the low probability of the complicated world history lasting over 1500 years to have really taken place as related. There was simply not enough population for all the events, characters, wars, armies of hundreds of thousands of warriors battling all over Eurasia.
On the contrary, it is highly probable that the artifacts and events related by the consensual version of history as very ancient have actually taken place in the Xth-XVIth centuries. Most of these events and artifacts may have interpretations very different from the ones of the consensual history.
Compact history hypothesis: by approx. 1000 AD the population of our species reaches 2 million, forms a polytheistic proto-state Kem in Egypt, invents statehood, religion, literacy, basic instruments, armaments, and warfare, morphs into monotheistic Judea-Israel Empire and spreads in Europe. By approx. 1200 AD Judea-Israel Empire starts to expand as an Orthodox Catholic Christendom Empire in Europe and Eurasia.
The Medieval Warm Period of 850–1350 A.D. in Northern Europe A.D. helped the growth of agriculture, construction, trade, and industry. The economic consequences of the Little Ice Age of 1350 – 1850 lead to the peasant revolts, Jewish pogroms, the sack of rich Catholic monasteries, facilitated the Protestantism, social and industrial revolutions.
By approx. 1400 AD Christendom Empire transforms into the centralized “Evil Empire” of Eurasia that disintegrates by approx. 1600 AD. The over-abundant inconsistencies of the consensual history show that it is not a Science, but an Art of inventing the fairy tales of ‘ancient’ Egypt, Greece, Rome, Persia, India and China that served the separation of Europe from Eurasia on the agenda of the ruling powers of the Western Europe of XVI-XVIIth centuries.
About the Author: Dr.Fomenko, Anatoly. Born in 1945. Full Member (Academician) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Full Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Full Member of the International Higher Education Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, Professor, Head of the Moscow State University Department of Mathematics and Mechanics. Solved the classical Plateau s Problem from the theory of minimal spectral surfaces. Author of the theory of invariants and topological classification of integrable Hamiltonian dynamic systems.
Laureate of the 1996 National Premium in Mathematics of the Russian Federation for a cycle of works on the Hamiltonian dynamic system multitude invariance theory. Author of 180 scientific publications, 26 monographs, and textbooks on mathematics, a specialist in geometry and topology, variational calculus, symplectic topology, Hamiltonian geometry and mechanics, computational geometry. Author of a number of books on the development of new empirical-statistical methods and their application to the analysis of historical chronicles as well as the chronology of Antiquity and the Middle Ages.